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The Spokesman-Review Newspaper
Spokane, Washington  Est. May 19, 1883

Up to 10 hurricanes in forecast this season

Carol J. Williams Los Angeles Times

MIAMI – Disaster planners at the National Hurricane Center warned in their annual forecast Monday that “a very active hurricane season is looming” and outlined a beefed-up system for tracking storms and helping people in their paths.

After last year’s record-shattering storm spree, a new tracking center has been put in service, another weather satellite launched, more forecasters hired and the volume of ready emergency relief supplies tripled.

While the season that begins June 1 isn’t expected to be as ferocious as last year’s, scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration calculate that 13 to 16 named storms will form over the North Atlantic over the next six months. Eight to 10 of them are predicted to be hurricanes, of which four to six will be Category Three or higher, meaning sustained winds upwards of 111 mph.

“The ultimate question is whether storms will make landfall. But that can’t be predicted this far in advance,” said retired Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher Jr., NOAA administrator, adding that it was “statistically within reason that two to four hurricanes could affect the United States.”

A record 28 named storms walloped the region last year, including 15 hurricanes, four of which struck the U.S. Southeast, devastating New Orleans and vast swaths along the Gulf of Mexico and Florida’s Atlantic coastline.

The frequency and intensity of storms predicted for this June through November exceed average annual activity, based on the past 40 years of hurricane tracking. On average, 11 named storms form each year, with six becoming hurricanes, two of them major.

Federal, state and local officials on hand at the National Hurricane Center to unveil this year’s forecast urged the millions living in hurricane-prone areas to be prepared.

“Remember, it only takes one hurricane in your neighborhood to have a bad hurricane season,” said Lautenbacher.

The North Atlantic is in the midst of a “multi-decadal signal,” a climate pattern favorable to hurricane formation and likely to last another 10 or 20 years, said Max Mayfield, hurricane center chief.

That climate pattern involves a confluence of conditions in the ocean and atmosphere, with warmer sea surface temperatures fueling storms and weaker than usual wind shear allowing them to gather force rather than get broken up as they travel westward, said Gerry Bell, hurricane outlook lead meteorologist.

In the wake of last year’s disasters, federal funding for hurricane forecasting and research has skyrocketed. A $300 million budget for the tropical storm work awaits President Bush’s signature – $109 million more than allocated last year, Lautenbacher said.

NOAA has also acquired a link with Europe’s main weather satellite to get images from the far eastern Atlantic, where storms tend to form. A new satellite downlink center in Washington to capture and analyze photos has been established, a new geostationary satellite has been deployed and four more forecasters have been hired at the hurricane center, a sturdy concrete bastion 20 miles inland.

Officials at the Federal Emergency Management Agency have stocked up on food and water and pre-positioned those supplies in the most vulnerable areas, said David Paulison, acting director of the agency scorned by Congress as well as storm victims for an ineffectual response after Hurricane Katrina.