NFL draft an inexact science
NEW YORK – Who says NFL scouts know everything?
They missed on Antonio Gates, now considered the best tight end in football.
They missed on Kurt Warner, a two-time NFL Most Valuable Player and an MVP of the Super Bowl. And on Rod Smith, who’s fourth on the career yards receiving list among active players.
None went in the first round of the draft. In fact, they didn’t go in any rounds.
Despite all the poking and prodding at the NFL Combine each year, players deemed too small, too slow or too injured invariably go on to become stars in the NFL after being passed over by personnel directors and general managers.
So who will be this year’s Priest Holmes?
Dick Vermeil, for one, doesn’t pretend to have the answer.
“You’d like to believe that we’re all smart enough to draft them anyway, but none of us are, obviously,” the former Chiefs coach said.
Holmes, undrafted in 1997 after an injury-filled career at Texas, rushed for a then-league-record 27 TDs in 2003.
Vermeil, who won a Super Bowl with the Rams in 1999, said teams don’t take it lightly when they miss on a player.
“I think every time someone misses on somebody that glaringly, they go back and evaluate their reports, evaluate the scouts that wrote the reports. They deeply evaluate the whole situation better and see where they made a mistake, or if they did,” Vermeil told the Associated Press in a telephone interview.
“Many times there’s little, mitigating circumstances … “
Chargers GM A.J. Smith says sometimes it’s just a matter of luck when you land an undrafted player who turns into a star. He should know.
San Diego was one of 19 teams vying for Gates, a college basketball standout for Kent State. Smith said the football gods were with him the day Gates’ original agent, Eugene Parker, called him with the good news.
“You know, of all these 19 teams, we’ve decided that we’re going to sign with you,” Smith recalled Parker saying. “So, I’ve never stood at a podium and took credit for this. This is absolutely what you call luck. Period and simple. And sometimes it happens in this business. And the San Diego Chargers were very, very lucky.”
Gates, an All-Pro, last season led NFL tight ends with 89 catches for 1,101 yards and 10 touchdowns.
To this day, Smith is mystified how players are missed.
“I’ve said this before: first-rounders are busts, and seventh-rounders and free agents have gone to Honolulu and the Pro Bowl,” Smith said. “How in the world does this happen? It’s a mystery of our business.
“A lot of times players do get better, and some of them get worse.”
He said the art of scouting is a never-ending pursuit.
“That’s part of the cycle of our business,” he said. “The bottom line is: Keep looking for players and you never know when you’re going to turn one over. … “