Things are looking up in Iraq. That’s what I keep hearing. They held successful elections, didn’t they? And the rest of the region is reflecting this success, with the Lebanese kicking out their Syrian-backed government and the Egyptians promising elections.

Funny thing how, once The New York Times editorial page pronounces approval of the Bush administration’s actions in the region, the number of American deaths passes 1,500 with barely a whimper in the media. Where’s that old-time liberal domination?

Of course, they’re killing way more Iraqis than Americans, because the Americans are learning to protect themselves better. As journalist Seymour Hersh pointed out in a lecture in Charleston, W.Va., last week, a lot of the supply operations in the region are now being done in the air, because the highways are just too dangerous.

And we have yet to figure out how to recruit and train an Iraqi security force without getting them blown to bits. Those poor kids who died on Feb. 28 – 122 of them, remember? – were just waiting for their physicals. Signing up, unfortunately, also means lining up – in a public place, in big, vulnerable, easily identifiable groups.

As for Lebanon, a serious miscalculation on somebody’s part – whoever was ultimately responsible for the murder of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri – inspired the Lebanese people finally to say, “Enough is enough.” This nationalist outpouring was not America’s doing, any more than the 1986 People Power movement in the Philippines.

But if any law prevails regarding foreign intervention in this region, it is surely the law of unintended consequences. Here’s a prime example. Say Syria acquiesces to Lebanese and American demands and pulls out of Lebanon. Then who runs the country? Who’s in a position to take over civil institutions? Who you gonna call? Remember an organization called Hezbollah?

In the power vacuum that would exist after a Syrian pullout, the Lebanese military could easily split into its pre-occupation factions. And already followers of Omar Karami, the prime minister who just resigned, have targeted the office of one of his opponents, killing one person.

If elections do take place in Egypt, or in Saudi Arabia, who’s to say they won’t go the same way they did in Algeria a few years back, bringing in a slate of very scary anti-American, anti-Western Islamist candidates. Elections in those countries might produce leaders who make the current dictators look like democrats.

In fact, in Syria, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, the dictators have actually protected American interests. Saudi money might be behind the terrorists, but Saudi leaders are also not eager to have their country controlled by fanatical jihadists.

So, let’s see, what does the current success in Iraq look like? A tiny handful of Iraqi security forces trained and equipped. An insurgency that has managed to completely infiltrate allied operations and accurately target its movements. About 150,000 troops over there with no immediate prospect of coming home.

And in the larger region, who’s on our side? Who are the good guys?

It’s not simple. That’s the biggest problem, really. Foreigners have never really understood the complex politics of the Middle East, and at least the Europeans, whose caution is hard won, understand that outsiders meddle at their peril.

Some liberals, I think, still profoundly disagree with Bush’s simplistic view of the region and his ambition to establish an outpost of democracy in Iraq, but they remember that they also thought the same about Ronald Reagan’s approach to communism. In the end, it seemed, Reagan’s instincts were right and his critics were left looking silly.

I’ll go out on a limb here. If we’re going to invoke that analogy, I fear the United States is acting more like the Soviet Union, invading countries for their own good on the understanding that our way is the right way and the beleaguered natives just need to be shown the light. It can only breed resentment and legitimize our enemies.

It’s really upsetting, because I think our way is the right way. I just think we’re going about it all wrong, and I can’t bring myself to see 1,500 dead kids – and a hundred times that many still out there in harm’s way – as any kind of success.