Carson Palmer was the best deal in 2005 fantasy drafts
Before we look into what shapes up as a very challenging Week 16 for fantasy owners lucky enough to still be alive in ‘05, let’s look back at the top players at each position and see what lessons we can take into our 2006 drafts.
We said in August to draft QBs in the middle rounds. Here are 2005’s top fantasy QBs in order of points scored (assuming four points for TDs and one point for every 25 yards passing and 10 rushing). We also note the average overall draft placement (AP) of the player in thousands of ESPN.com leagues: Carson Palmer (260 points, AP: 77), Peyton Manning (250, 5), Tom Brady (247, 57), Matt Hasselbeck (224, 66), Eli Manning (217, 133), Drew Brees (217, 70), Michael Vick (213, 50), Drew Bledsoe (208, 132), Jake Plummer (205, 72), Steve McNair (195, 123).
Look at those bargains. And it’s not like Carson Palmer came out of nowhere. We included him in our preseason column on undervalued QBs. Any owner who takes a QB in the early rounds of a one-QB league is what the rest of us call a donator.
The top 2005 fantasy wide receivers (assuming a point for every 10 yards and six for every TD): Steve Smith (214 points, AP: 82), Marvin Harrison (185, 23), Chad Johnson (177, 27), Larry Fitzgerald (176, 66), Anquan Boldin (166, 78), Joey Galloway (164, 159), Chris Chambers (161, 61), Torry Holt (160, 20), Santana Moss (160, 91), Hines Ward (143, 51).
Another position you’re best off ignoring very early in the draft. In fact, the top WR drafted in almost every league, Randy Moss, finished 28th in fantasy scoring (behind Joe Jurevicius).
Predictably, you were cleared for fantasy takeoff if, on draft day, you spent your first two picks on running backs. Here, the order of actual point leaders most closely aligns with overall draft order: Shaun Alexander (318, 2), LaDainian Tomlinson (299, 1), Larry Johnson (262, 90, but we practically begged you all to take him much earlier in August), Edgerrin James (261, 6), Tiki Barber (260, 18), LaMont Jordan (225, 27), Rudi Johnson (215, 20), Clinton Portis (198, 12), Mike Anderson (186, 132, but much higher if you drafted later), Steven Jackson (183, 33).
If you’re a contrarian at heart and detest the idea of rewarding group think, tweak your league’s scoring by adding a point per catch and/or forcing teams to start two quarterbacks.
Buy
Ricky Williams (RB, Dolphins): Ronnie Brown injured his knee and is questionable vs. the Titans. Williams, meanwhile, has been decent even in the timeshare, scoring a TD in three of his last four games.
Keenan McCardell (WR, Chargers): With Tomlinson hurting, the Chargers will likely emphasize the passing game in a must-win situation. McCardell has three TDs the last five weeks (nine on the season).
Josh McCown (QB, Cardinals): Kurt Warner is done for ‘05 and McCown back at starter after being sidelined with the flu in Week 15. The Eagles are bottom third in yards and points allowed per pass attempt and McCown has great weapons at wide receiver.
Sell
Colts offense: Tony Dungy mentioned the words Monday that no Colts’ owner wants to hear: Jim Sorgi. We’re told Manning’s backup will see action the next two games. James is likely to be rested. Harrison is nursing a sore hand. (Week 16 opponent Seattle is still playing for home-field throughout the playoffs.)
Warrick Dunn (RB, Falcons): He hasn’t scored a TD in six weeks and gets another tough matchup Sunday at Tampa Bay (third stingiest defense in yards per carry and just nine rushing TDs allowed).