AFC
Team-by team capsules for the 2004 NFL season, listed in order of last season’s finish, with 2003 record in parentheses:
New England Patriots (14-2)
OPTIMISTIC: Can set an NFL record of 19 consecutive victories, including playoffs, by winning its first four games, the last one against Miami. Dolphins set the mark by going 17-0 in 1972, then winning their first game in 1973. Return most starters and should be improved with RB Corey Dillon and second-year DE Ty Warren. Coach Bill Belichick won’t permit swelled heads after winning two of last three Super Bowls. New P Josh Miller is improvement over Ken Walter.
PESSIMISTIC: Must avoid post-Super Bowl letdown of 2002, when Pats missed playoffs. Passing game was shaky in first two exhibition games. Loss of free agent G-C Damien Woody to Detroit leaves inexperienced OL. Dillon must regain his form and refrain from griping or being disruptive, as he was in Cincinnati.
ON THE RISE: WRs David Givens and Bethel Johnson, TE Daniel Graham, DE Warren, rookie NT Vince Wilfork, S Eugene Wilson, LB Rosevelt Colvin. Colvin was last year’s big free-agent acquisition, but missed almost entire season with broken left hip.
ON THE DECLINE: LB Ted Johnson.
EXPECT: AFC East champions with a solid shot at reaching their third Super Bowl in four seasons.
Kansas City Chiefs (13-3)
OPTIMISTIC: Gunther Cunningham is back as defensive coordinator and so is NFL’s highest-scoring offense. Only one member of blue-chip OL is gone. RB Priest Holmes and QB Trent Green look sharp as ever and kick return demon Dante Hall is back to scare opponents.
PESSIMISTIC: Cunningham is working with almost same defensive cast that finished 29th in league a year ago. Receiving corps remains mediocre and outstanding OL is growing old.
ON THE RISE: Rookie TE Kris Wilson and undrafted rookie WR Richard Smith turned heads in training camp. Wilson could benefit from double coverage routinely given to perennial Pro Bowl player Tony Gonzalez.
ON THE DECLINE: T Willie Roaf and G Will Shields are aging. Holmes has absorbed a lot of punishment in seven seasons. How much longer can a 31-year-old RB stay on top?
EXPECT: Will contend, but schedule is tough and defense still leaky.
Indianapolis Colts (12-4)
OPTIMISTIC: High-scoring offense remains intact and could be even better. Peyton Manning is coming off best season and has deepest, most established receiving corps. RB Edgerrin James says he’s better now than a year ago, and OL has more experience and depth.
PESSIMISTIC: Defense is young and, in some spots, untested. Neither Donald Strickland nor Joseph Jefferson have played well enough to earn starting job at CB. Second-round draft pick S Bob Sanders was expected to compete for playing time, but has been a holdout.
ON THE RISE: Second-year LB Cato June has made what appears a seamless transition from college safety to pro LB as replacement for Marcus Washington.
ON THE DECLINE: S Idrees Bashir was expected to give Colts a bigger presence in secondary, but has been ordinary during first three seasons.
EXPECT: A legitimate Super Bowl contender if defense continues to improve.
Tennessee Titans (12-4)
OPTIMISTIC: QB Steve McNair gives Titans hope anytime he takes the field, and has been sharp so far after having bone spur removed from left ankle. Third-year DT Albert Haynesworth says he wants to be Pro Bowl selection and has worked hard.
PESSIMISTIC: Youngsters needed to provide pass rush have been slow to improve, especially DE Carlos Hall, replacement for departed Jevon Kearse. Defense already has lost starting LB Peter Sirmon for season (torn knee ligament).
ON THE RISE: If RB Chris Brown can stay healthy and hold on to the ball, he can replace Eddie George, team’s all-time leading rusher. WR Tyrone Calico could become major player in his second season.
ON THE DECLINE: FS Lance Schulters. He led team with six interceptions in 2002 but was forced to play out of position because of injuries last season. Back at safety now with left shoulder surgically repaired, and Lamont Thompson is pushing him.
EXPECT: As usual, Titans’ season depends on McNair’s health. If he holds up, they can go long way.
Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
OPTIMISTIC: AFC North champions return almost everyone, with exception of WR Marcus Robinson. He has been replaced by Kevin Johnson, a change perceived as an upgrade.
PESSIMISTIC: NFL rushing champion Jamal Lewis could miss time while on trial in November on federal drug charges. If second-year QB Kyle Boller doesn’t improve, offense could again be problem, especially with average WRs.
ON THE RISE: Ravens hope year of experience will bring about an improvement in Boller, who has benefited from working with former Giants coach Jim Fassel. Defensive rookie of year LB Terrell Suggs hopes to add run defense to his repertoire after proving adept last year at rushing quarterbacks.
ON THE DECLINE: LB Peter Boulware missed training camp with knee injury and is no longer a powerful presence. DB Corey Fuller has lost a step (or two), one reason Ravens extended invitation to retired Deion Sanders to return to NFL at age 37.
EXPECT: Ravens should successfully defend division title, but probably will fall short of reaching Super Bowl.
Denver Broncos (10-6)
OPTIMISTIC: After 41-10 playoff thrashing by Peyton Manning and Colts, Broncos spent offseason adding CB Champ Bailey, S John Lynch and rookie LB D.J. Williams. LB still question mark after Ian Gold went to Tampa Bay and John Mobley was released because of neck injury.
PESSIMISTIC: Despite injuries, QB Jake Plummer was impressive in first year in Denver, but RB Clinton Portis was traded for Bailey after running for more than 3,000 yards his first two seasons. WR Ed McCaffrey and TE Shannon Sharpe retired. Quentin Griffin may be too small (5-foot-7, 195 pounds) to be an every-down back. WR Ashley Lelie has been inconsistent in his first two seasons.
ON THE RISE: RB Tatum Bell, the second-round draft pick. He broke finger on first day of camp, but eventually could be next in long line of stellar Broncos running backs.
ON THE DECLINE: WR Rod Smith. The 10-year veteran has been Broncos’ most consistent receiver, catching at least 70 passes in seven straight seasons. But with Sharpe and McCaffrey gone and Lelie yet to live up to billing of first-round pick, teams will be able to focus on him.
EXPECT: Broncos are geared to be like Baltimore and New England: Emphasize defense and try not to make too many mistakes on offense. If offense is able to move with consistency and without turnovers, expect Broncos to be in playoffs for second straight year.
Miami Dolphins (10-6)
OPTIMISTIC: Over past two decades, South Florida faithful went into each season expecting Dolphins to win Super Bowl, and they didn’t come close. This year few expect even a playoff berth, so …
PESSIMISTIC: With RB Ricky Williams bailing out, receiving corps depleted by injuries and QB situation unsettled, Dolphins might go all season without a first down.
ON THE RISE: Dolphins await a breakout year by WR Chris Chambers, but he needs someone to get him the ball. Young QB A.J. Feeley is trying to unseat four-year starter Jay Fiedler.
ON THE DECLINE: Since late ‘90s, Dolphins have relied on defense, and that unit keeps getting older. Zach Thomas and Tim Bowens are 31 this season; Jason Taylor is 30. Plus Pro Bowl DE Adewale Ogunleye departed for Chicago. Unless Miami wins big, Dave Wannstedt may be in final season as head coach.
EXPECT: Dolphins’ last losing season was in 1988. Another one looms.
Cincinnati Bengals (8-8)
OPTIMISTIC: Players have better idea of what Marvin Lewis wants in his second season as coach. Second-half surge last season injected confidence into downtrodden franchise. The addition of CBs Deltha O’Neal and Tory James and S Kim Herring should upgrade problem area.
PESSIMISTIC: Schedule is much tougher and starting QB, 2002 Heisman Trophy winner Carson Palmer, didn’t take a snap in rookie season.
ON THE RISE: RB Rudi Johnson, who took over when Corey Dillon got hurt last season, ran for 957 yards and nine touchdowns while sharing job with Dillon, who was traded to New England after season.
ON THE DECLINE: Bengals’ losing image. They still haven’t had winning season since 1990, last time they made playoffs, but they’re no longer looked upon as doormats. They have new uniforms and new respect.
EXPECT: Another 8-8 finish would amount to a step forward, given tough schedule and inexperience at QB. Look for Bengals to become legitimate contender in 2005, when Palmer has a year of experience and Lewis has another off-season to upgrade.
Buffalo Bills (6-10)
OPTIMISTIC: Offense should be better. WR Eric Moulds and RB Travis Henry are bolstered by rookie WR Lee Evans and return of 2003 first-round pick Willis McGahee, who missed last season recovering from knee injury.
PESSIMISTIC: Henry-McGahee tandem already showing signs of unraveling, because neither wants to share time. QB Drew Bledsoe has to prove last year’s troubles weren’t a sign of age. OL is in disarray with no one emerging to replace loss of Pro Bowl LG Ruben Brown.
ON THE RISE: Evans, selected 13th overall, looks like he can be deep threat. Rookie QB J.P. Losman, selected 22nd overall, was strong before breaking left leg. He’ll be out 8-12 weeks, meaning he probably won’t succeed Bledsoe until next season at the earliest.
ON THE DECLINE: Bledsoe was sacked NFL-high 49 times last year and threw more interceptions (12) than touchdowns (11). RT Mike Williams, selected fourth in 2002 draft, bothered by personal issues and nagging injuries.
EXPECT: Pressure on fourth-year GM Tom Donahoe, who made few changes to team that he maintains underachieved last season. If coach Mike Mularkey can get offense in order, Bills have opportunity to enjoy first winning season since 1999.
New York Jets (6-10)
OPTIMISTIC: QB Chad Pennington stays healthy and plays as he did in 2002, when he led NFL in passing efficiency. Justin McCareins provides help at wide receiver for Santana Moss. A younger, quicker defense comes together under new coordinator Donnie Henderson.
PESSIMISTIC: Pennington gets hurt, as he did in preseason a year ago. Newly signed Quincy Carter as backup and might not fit West Coast offense. DT Dewayne Robertson, whom Jets traded up to take with fourth pick in 2003 draft, must improve markedly over last year.
ON THE RISE: Moss, who had 74 catches in third season after just 32 in first two and should be helped by McCareins, obtained in a trade with Tennessee.
ON THE DECLINE: CB Donnie Abraham, who missed half of last season with injuries and who will turn 31 in October.
EXPECTATIONS: If Pennington, RB Curtis Martin and OL stay healthy, offense could be OK. Can play with Miami and Buffalo in AFC East, but New England seems out of reach.
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-10)
OPTIMISTIC: OL stays healthy and consistent, newcomer Duce Staley and old reliable Jerome Bettis have time to find holes. WR Plaxico Burress has big season in a contract year, giving QB Tommy Maddox deep threat he needs.
PESSIMISTIC: The OL isn’t healthy. RG Kendall Simmons is lost for year. Maddox again has little protection and is looking over his shoulder at first-round draft pick Ben Roethlisberger; LB Clark Haggans doesn’t adequately replace Jason Gildon.
ON THE RISE: Staley is in perfect spot with team committed to run. WR Antwaan Randle El, already one of AFC’s most dangerous kick returners, wants to produce more as receiver.
ON THE DECLINE: Bettis, No. 6 in NFL career rushing, could play little with Staley around. C Jeff Hartings hopes to get another year out of always troublesome knees. CB Chad Scott is lone returning starter in secondary and has struggled.
EXPECT: Turnaround from 6-10 to 10-6 is possible in AFC North with a lot of ifs, primarily OL and secondary. If Steelers miss playoffs, fans will wonder why coach Bill Cowher got contract extension through 2007.
Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11)
OPTIMISTIC: Improving defense, good young QB in Byron Leftwich. RB Fred Taylor and a second-year coach, Jack Del Rio, who seems to know what he’s doing.
PESSIMISTIC: Slow starts plagued team last year, and offense needs to pick it up. Needs more pass rush from defensive ends. Also, can a team really contend without decent placekicker? Jaguars haven’t found one in two-plus years.
ON THE RISE: Leftwich worked on form in offseason; WR Reggie Williams was first-round draft pick; LB Akin Ayodele seems to be coming into his own; DB Rashean Mathis has knack for being in right place.
ON THE DECLINE: DE Hugh Douglas had terrible 2003 season. WR Jimmy Smith still very productive but is 35.
EXPECT: Improving team that could challenge for playoffs.
Houston Texans (5-11)
OPTIMISTIC: Continuity on offense, which finally will not have to rely on rookies and has promising young trio in QB David Carr, WR Andre Johnson and RB Domanick Davis. Patient building plan of GM Charley Casserly and coach Dom Capers appears on schedule as third-year Texans have more talent than ever.
PESSIMISTIC: Defense will start two rookies — CB Dunta Robinson and OLB Jason Babin — and CB Marcus Coleman must master move to free safety.
ON THE RISE: Davis, drafted mainly to return kicks, had 1,031 yards rushing while starting only 10 games as rookie.
ON THE DECLINE: RB Jonathan Wells, who started as rookie in 2002 and now is special-teamer at best. TE Bennie Joppru, second-round draft pick last year who is missing second training camp with groin injury.
EXPECT: Somewhere around .500.
Cleveland Browns (5-11)
OPTIMISTIC: QB Jeff Garcia and TE Kellen Winslow Jr. give offense new weapons and Garcia’s ability to roll out should take pressure off the line. FB Terrelle Smith will help open holes for RBs Lee Suggs and William Green. Additions at LB and DL provide depth.
PESSIMISTIC: OL is an injury away from disaster. T Ross Verba, who missed last season with torn biceps tendon, has had several nagging injuries during training camp. Aging secondary is thin and still has no one to stop run.
ON THE RISE: Offense will focus on Suggs and Green. Either is poised to have breakout year. Winslow has shown speed and great hands in camp and will be huge threat if he keeps temper in check. LB Andra Davis had 170 tackles in 2003, his second season, and will only get better.
ON THE DECLINE: Coach Butch Davis still hasn’t proven himself and now takes all the blame because he controls organization. SS Robert Griffith is entering 11th season. DE Courtney Brown and DT Gerard Warren have never played like high first-round picks. WRs Quincy Morgan and Andre’ Davis need to be more consistent.
EXPECT: Browns should improve on 5-11 season but don’t look ready for playoffs.
Oakland Raiders (4-12)
OPTIMISTIC: New coach Norv Turner has respect of team, which wasn’t the case with fired Bill Callahan. QB Rich Gannon is healthy after shoulder surgery and Kerry Collins could challenge him. Added a lot of experience: Collins, DTs Warren Sapp and Ted Washington, S Ray Buchanan, LBs Dwayne Rudd and Danny Clark and G Ron Stone.
PESSIMISTIC: Four-time Pro Bowl CB Charles Woodson is holding out. And how much do veterans Gannon, Sapp, Stone and Washington have left?
ON THE RISE: Jerry Porter may be star of receiving corps now minus Tim Brown. Ronald Curry, the No. 3 receiver, will be another to watch. Defense needs veterans to perform after allowing league-worst 156.9 yards rushing per game.
ON THE DECLINE: Still an old team that Washington, Sapp, et al, don’t make younger. Lost 11 players to injured reserve last season, including five in nine-day span during one stretch.
EXPECT: One of biggest question marks in league. How quickly things come together with new personnel and new schemes on offense and defense will be big factor in their success early in season.
San Diego Chargers (4-12)
OPTIMISTIC: LaDainian Tomlinson, arguably the NFL’s best running back.
PESSIMISTIC: No other marquee players. Chargers have made habit of failing to come to terms with high draft picks, which is why QB Philip Rivers held out.
ON THE RISE: TE Antonio Gates, CB Quentin Jammer.
ON THE DECLINE: Coach Marty Schottenheimer and entire organization, which has fallen into a state previously reserved for Cincinnati and Arizona. Ninth-winningest coach, Schottenheimer hasn’t had winning record his last four seasons, including with Kansas City and Washington. Marty Ball has become Marty Fall in San Diego, where he’s 12-20 in two seasons.
EXPECT: Another bad season.
–Associated Press