Two very different pictures can be painted of Afghanistan’s historic presidential election today.

In gloomy grays and blacks, with explosions of blood red, pessimists could portray the first Afghan national elections in 35 war-torn years as a sham. You can’t call these legitimate elections, they might argue, when security issues are an utmost concern – safety for the voters, polling places and ballots. In the south and east parts of Afghanistan, for example, women have received letters warning them not to vote – that they’ll be killed and their houses burned if they do. Violence dogs the election process. Only Wednesday, vice presidential hopeful Ahmed Zia Massood escaped an assassination attempt in northeastern Badakhshan province, an area known for its opium and heroin trade.

In the bright spring colors of crocuses, tulips and daffodils, on the other hand, an optimist might represent the elections as a desert flower that has survived misogynistic tyrants, constant war, feudal factions and religious intolerance, ignorance and poverty. Millions have registered to vote, including refugees from Pakistan and Iran – and women, who, only three short years ago, were considered little more than chattel. To a Pollyanna, the vote today could launch a domino effect that will spread democracy throughout the Muslim Arab world.

We’re somewhere in the middle.

The elections today in Afghanistan are cause for cautious celebration. Three years ago, when the Taliban routinely hanged unfortunates from the goal posts of the Kabul soccer stadium and Osama bin Laden’s henchmen openly taught the art of terrorism in camps, free Afghan elections were as unimaginable as a woman in the marketplace dressed in something other than a burka. The elections, however, should be kept in perspective. How legitimate are they going to be when observers will watch only a small portion of the polling places?

The Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit, a Kabul-based think tank, questioned the legitimacy of the elections, noting that polling staff from local villages will be “guarded” by local police under the supervision of local warlords.

“This is a recipe for electoral fraud,” an Afghanistan Research representative told the Integrated Regional Information Networks.

Yet, Jean Arnault, United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan’s special representative for Afghanistan, was quoted as saying that as imperfect as conditions might be, the election would be fair enough to give Afghanistan’s leader legitimacy.

It is “with full knowledge of the difficulties that surround this exercise that we deem the degree of freedom and fairness adequate to allow the will of the Afghan people as a whole to translate to the polls, and the next president of Afghanistan to claim to represent the nation,” Arnault told the Associated Press.

Violence is likely to dog today’s elections. In recent months, terrorists have killed 12 election workers, including four women. Anti-freedom fighters know that each Afghan who experiences the liberating experience of casting a secret ballot represents someone who’ll be harder to intimidate into bowing down to the old theocratic system. Each female voter is a finger in the eye of bin Laden and the terrorists who would enslave her again. In a best-case scenario, Afghanistan could serve as a pace-setter for other Middle Eastern countries.

But it could be years before we know the consequences of today’s vote.