Fashion Innovations Usually Follow Predictable Pattern

In conversations with three groups last week, I was asked the same question: “How do you know what will be in style and what will be out of style next season?” As much as I would love to claim psychic fashion powers, it’s really not that mysterious.

Fashion, as with most things, has a fairly predictable cycle of stages that determine where a particular style is and approximately how much longer it will remain popular. It’s a bell-shaped curve that usually starts off gradually, picks up steam until it reaches the height of popularity, then dies off quickly. The stages are commonly referred to as introduction, acceptance, saturation and decline.

It’s easy to track a trend through the stages. Take for example, wide-leg pants, a style that had its introduction about 36 months ago with 14- to 18-year-old boys. This age group usually starts the most popular trends, although adolescent girls also are responsible for some major hits.

These trendsetters will generally stick with a fashion until it has reached its most extreme stage, then drop it like a hot potato. Many companies are trying to sell this group on ultra-wide leg pants, some more than 40 inches around each ankle. It’s tough to get much bigger than this and still be able to walk. We’re probably at the extreme limit for this trend.

Stage two, acceptance, begins as other groups, particularly younger people and women start picking up on the trend. At this point retailers are making the most amount of money on the style - it is in constant demand and supply is generally limited. It seems as though the clothes practically fly out of the store. Momentum is building.

The longer we are exposed to a style the more apt we are to join in, and a trend begins to reach the saturation stage.

That’s what’s happening with wide-leg pants now. Many designers are showing wide-leg pants as a part of their spring and summer ‘98 collections. That means the style has now crossed into the mainstream market and is about to reach the point of saturation.

This is usually a death knell for most trendy styles. When Aunt Edna starts wearing it to the grocery store, you can bet 14-year-old Brittany wouldn’t be caught dead in it. She and other people her age are on to something else.

At this point we reach the stage of decline. The item that once was trendy starts showing up on clearance racks and at discount stores.

Soon you won’t be able to give the stuff away. Another cycle has reached its conclusion, and a new one has already begun.

There’s no absolute timeline that will determine how long a style will remain popular, but most cycles take approximately 24 months to go from introduction through decline. Some take longer, many take far less time.

Then there’s the exception - instead of reaching a state of decline, a style may gain acceptance with nearly all groups and never go away. A good example would be jeans. They reached a point where almost everyone accepted them, but rather than being discarded they have taken on the status of a classic. They’ll be with us for years to come.

Still confused? Maybe I should consider setting up a 1-900 telephone line for psychic fashion predictions.

I could make a fortune.