Mfn For China? Again? Long Shot Is Now A Sure Bet

When I returned from China last fall as part of a Journalism and Mass Communications delegation, I didn’t think Beijing had a prayer of getting most favored nation trading status from the United States in June.

Even if you discount all of the political mess involving so-called Asian influence with both U.S. political parties since then, I was convinced the human rights issue alone would be enough to scuttle any new trade deal involving one of America’s biggest trading partners.

Nobody on the American side of the Pacific had to persuade me otherwise. I had actually seen the situation up close for myself during a two-week sojourn in China. It was a country whose view of right and wrong in handling its own people differed vastly from mine.

At the time of my visit, two of the country’s most celebrated dissidents, Wang Dang and Liu Xiabo from the 1989 Tiananmen uprising, were about to be returned to prison for another 10 years in an obvious show of force by the Beijing government against Chinese citizens who speak out with embarrassing dissent.

Not a word of these developments was carried by any of the hundreds of state-run publications or by the government-controlled electronic media, which are not as primitive and naive as some Westerners might think.

In December, right on the heels of the iron-fisted display involving the two high-profile dissidents, came the shutting down by the communist government of all Western communications on the Internet - in and out of official China. Thankfully, this incredible government mandate has since been relaxed.

Further, just this February, we learned that Beijing had effectively snuffed out every kernel of dissidence, bragging to the entire world that such was the case. To prove it, Chinese officials pointed to the tranquillity on its streets - and the large number of dissidents who are safely behind bars.

Now that’s chutzpah - if not a disturbing international arrogance, which the United States has indicated it wants to embrace with renewed Chinese trade arrangements.

I don’t know how things will pan out next month when the MFN issue goes before Congress. The House and the Senate have a big say in who trades with the United States, as they should.

Because Congress does have a pivotal role in the matter, there wasn’t much doubt in my mind even a few months ago that, with all the political shenanigans and human rights violations emanating from the world’s most populous country, the issue was virtually a slam dunk for defeat.

Boy, did I miss the target.

Yes, fireworks are almost certain to erupt once Congressional hearings begin. But the betting is that Beijing will end up getting what it wants and America again will come off as a gentle lion that roared but chose not to bite.

Neither country can afford to interrupt a trade agreement that involves billions of dollars on both sides. That would be a misstep tantamount to a dagger in the heart - good economy or not.

President Clinton is at the forefront of the issue, which, for him, not only represents an inexplicable softening of his China MFN position but a complete about-face from his 1992 campaign against George Bush.

“Our broad policy is engagement,” said the president, de-emphasizing a linkage with MFN status and the issue of Chinese human rights. “That doesn’t mean we win every point, but it means we work together when we can and we’re honest in our disagreements when they exist.”

Obviously, the stakes are high for both countries in this regard - especially for China. The country went to a market-style economy 18 years ago, and any disruption in this capitalistic approach that it has learned to like could prove devastating down the road. Our Asian media counterparts said as much last October during our lengthy economic discussions in Beijing, Xi’an and Shanghai.

With MFN approval on the horizon, it looks as if China’s desires will be realized - again.

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The following fields overflowed: CREDIT = Fred Davis Washington State University