Buchanan Will Win N.H. Round

Every road-weary columnist on the campaign trail should be allowed one off-the-wall prediction, one shot at the moon, one chance to make a fool of himself.

So here’s my roll of the dice: Pat Buchanan is going to win the New Hampshire primary.

Yep, Pat, angry firebrand molded by Richard Nixon and made by CNN, is going to beat a tattoo on Republican figurehead Bob Dole. And when Buchanan upsets Dole here Tuesday night, he’ll throw the media and Republican hierarchy into a neurotic tailspin.

Sure, Dole can recover to be the GOP nominee. But the ‘96 race will be an existential poker game, all cards wild.

I don’t care if every New Hampshire poll shows Buchanan trailing Dole by five to eight points. He can win here. I don’t care if Dole has more campaign dough, more TV ads and an army of governors propping him up.

The Buchanan vs. Dole match reminds me of the first fight I covered between Cassius Clay (his name then) and Sonny Liston. Clay jabbered and clowned, an 8-to-1 underdog. But once in the ring, Liston proved to be an aging ghost, dazed by Clay’s speed, legs and style.

I suspect Buchanan will do the same fast dance on Dole, who’s going through the motions as though he inherited the GOP crown.

And I don’t even like Pat’s jackbooted politics, the “cultural war” hate he spewed at the ‘92 Houston convention. It’s tinged with Us vs. Them bigotry.

So if I’m wrong, blame it on intuition. I followed Buchanan’s caravan to this seaside town. I sensed the same bubbling electricity I felt around Cassius Clay three decades ago. Buchanan thinks he can win here, knows it’s his best shot and isn’t afraid to go straight at Dole.

I wasn’t surprised that Buchanan roasted Dole for sending U.S. jobs overseas. That’s Pat’s shtick. “He’s Mister NAFTA, Mister GATT, Mister Mexico bailout,” said Buchanan. “He’s hauled water for Citibank, Chase Manhattan and Goldman Sachs.”

But I knew Pat wasn’t holding back his ammo when he blasted Dole: “He’s an Archer Daniels Midlands Republican.”

That’s a charge no one in the party but Buchanan would throw at Dole. There have long been whispers that Dole was in the pocket of ADM, one of the country’s biggest agribusinesses. He flies on ADM’s jets (35 times in two years, reimbursed). Chief Executive Officer Dwayne Andreas gave $200,000 to Dole’s campaigns. There are shadows over the $150,000 Bal Harbor, Fla. condominium Andreas sold to Dole’s wife.

Obviously, Buchanan is trying to pressure Dole, hoping his notorious temper will blow. But my rationale for picking Buchanan to win here is the nervous undercurrent of New Hampshire - and the way Pat’s save-the-jobs rhetoric rides that anxiety.

Sure, on the surface the economy here is better than in 1992, when factories along the Merrimack River were going dark and George (“I Care”) Bush was a pariah. Dole’s pal, Gov. Steve Merrill, brags that unemployment has gone down from 7.5 percent to 3.1 percent. But the numbers hide the truth - anyone who works one hour a week is “employed.” And the average weekly paycheck has stalled, $490 to $486.

“People are scared,” said ex-Rep. Chuck Douglas of Concord. “Bank officers are selling lawn mowers at Wal-Mart. Pat is the only one talking about those fears. That’s why he’s got Perot voters, Reagan Democrats and independents moving his way.”

Buchanan’s remedy for job jitters - build a “Fortress America.” Cancel those big trade contracts. Make the Japanese pay heavy tariffs on goods to the United States. Build a wall against south-of-the-border immigrants. End foreign aid. Pull back foreign-based U.S. troops.

Let economists and mainstream Republicans cavil at Buchanan’s “isolationism.” He’s touching blue-collar nerves. “I like him because he never changes,” said factory worker Rick Cheney of Dover. “Pat’s talking about big shots screwing with our jobs.”

You can tell Buchanan’s message pays off when Dole parrots it, criticizing “corporate profits.” Laughs Pat, “Suddenly he’s a red-hot populist.” Another signal: Dole will run attack ads lashing Buchanan’s “extremist ideas.” (Bush ridiculed Buchanan four years ago with an ad showing Pat’s Mercedes-Benz; I notice Buchanan is traveling in a Dodge minivan).

Nobody but Pat and his sister-manager Bay really envisions Buchanan winning the GOP nomination. He’s too far right on abortion and social issues, too far left on economics. He’d tear the party apart. He’s unelectable.

“Yeah,” chuckles Ed Rollins, the veteran Republican strategist, “just what they said about Reagan.”

The cinch is that Buchanan’s the happiest warrior in the field, relishing the mobs of TV crews, loving the chaos he’s created. When Dole’s flack calls him “a bomb-thrower and hell-raiser,” he takes a bow.

“The Republican establishment is in panic,” said Buchanan, his meaty face aglow. “They hear hoofbeats.”

He’ll have to run like hell the last 72 hours. But I believe he can win New Hampshire. Before the Clay-Liston fight, I lost my nerve when I had a hunch Clay would pull an upset. This time I stick with instinct:

Buchanan by a TKO.

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