For Time Being, TVs, Computers Remain Separate
Q: Do you see a merging of television and computers? Is it possible that communications speeds could become so rapid that the distinction between cable television and on-line services would erode? Lee Bowron, Nashville (LeeBowronaol.com)
A.The distinction between communications networks will go away. A single wire coming into your home or office will deliver phone, videophone, Internet and television service. The connections will be offered by telephone, cable television and possibly even utility companies.
Manufacturers are beginning to experiment with hybrids of televisions and computers, and the underlying technology of the devices will begin to merge. But the form and function of communications appliances such as TVs, computers and telephones will tend to remain distinct because we use the tools in different ways.
A few years ago, some people speculated that televisions would be the primary devices people would use to interact with information on the “information highway” of the future. The rise of the Internet has made it clear that personal computers will fill this role, instead.
For one thing, television screens can’t display small text clearly. And keyboards will remain important even when computers get good at recognizing the spoken and handwritten word.
The PC won’t be the only way to browse the Internet, though. Televisions will connect to the network through the use of set-top boxes that are, in essence, computers without screens. The wallet PC, which I’ve predicted in a previous column, will draw information from the interactive network. New-generation telephones will connect, too.
The issue of what hardware and software will become mainstream in the Internet era is particularly hot right now among the “digerati,” because it reflects on the kind of experience the Internet will deliver. I’ve addressed the topic, at greater length than is possible in this column, in an essay to be posted on the Internet at http://www.microsoft.com/.
Meanwhile, here’s a related question.
Q. If TVs and PCs merge, which kind of manufacturer do you think has the advantage, the TV manufacturer or the PC manufacturer? Naomi Seko, Yokohama, Japan (GHC01467niftyserve.or.jp)
A. Traditionally, consumer-electronics companies haven’t been deeply involved in the PC industry. By and large, consumer-electronics companies haven’t been major players.
The landscape is changing. Over the past year, the Japanese domestic market for PCs has exploded.
At the same time, Japanese consumer electronics companies have increased their exports of computer hardware. NEC is making PCs, Sony plans to make them, and Mitsubishi will sell large-screen TVs that let people browse the Internet. In Europe, Thomson Consumer Electronics is making similar moves.
Consumer-electronics companies have strong skills: marketing, manufacturing, distribution. I expect some to make big contributions to the worldwide PC marketplace, even before the technology of TVs and PCs begins to converge.
The prospect of this increased competition is one reason PC manufacturers are driving to get into more efficient, higher-volume production. Meanwhile, they are readying their own products aimed at the consumer-electronics market.
It could shape up as a real battle. If so, the biggest winners will be consumers, who will reap the benefits of rapid innovation and low prices.
Q. Children’s books are the crucial educational “technology” today. They’re portable, cheap, disposable and sometimes even lovable. Kids can really connect with books. Can your higher technology do something similar? James H. Wendorf (PFYY60Aprodigy.com)
A. Books are great. You can put them in the crib. Kids can take them on a bus or plane. I’m a big fan of all kinds of books, and they will continue to be very important.
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