Mediator For Balkans Pessimistic Former Swiss Prime Minister Admits Chances Slim For Diplomatic Settlement

In unusually blunt language, Europe’s new mediator for the Balkans crisis Tuesday admitted that his chances for crafting a diplomatic settlement there were slim, then predicted that the three-year-old war in Bosnia-Herzegovnia would probably escalate further.

“We are more likely to head for war than for peace in the immediate period ahead” in Bosnia, former Swedish prime minister Carl Bildt told reporters at a summit here of the 15 European Union states, adding that a negotiated settlement was only possible if the international community supported just one peace plan. “We might not have much of a chance anyway, but we can only move ahead if we are united,” he said.

His remarks came after a briefing of EU leaders on the crisis during a working dinner Monday night. Bildt earlier this month replaced Lord Owen, a former British foreign secretary, as the EU’s Balkans mediator.

After giving Bildt his first negotiating mandate in the former Yugoslavia, EU leaders Tuesday also acted on other fronts, including rededicating themselves to the lofty but technically difficult task of creating a single European currency by 1999 and agreeing a formal accord on the new European policy agency, Europol.

Bildt departs today on a new round of diplomacy that will take him first to Madrid, Spain, to consult with officials from the Spanish government, which takes over the EU’s six-month rotating presidency next week, then to Geneva, for meetings with representatives of the five-nation Bosnia Contact Group, made up of the United States, Russia, Britain, France and Germany.

He is scheduled to return to the former Yugoslavia Friday.

The Swedish statesman was equally pessimistic about conditions in Croatia, where many believe government forces are preparing new action against Serb-held regions of the country. “Clearly there is a drift toward greater military confrontation in Croatia,” Bildt said.

He said he hoped to meet next week with Croatian President Franjo Tudjman.