The commercials for tonight’s Academy Award ceremony have labeled this year’s Oscar race the most competitive in recent years, and for once there’s truth in advertising. Normally, your friendly neighborhood Oscar prognosticator would study the numbers, figure the odds and determine who’s most likely to win which award, but this year the acclaim has been all over the place. The marketplace was simply too crowded with good movies and performances, many of which were completely shut out by the Academy. For three years now, Dan Webster and I have offered up our dual predictions in the main Oscar categories: actor and actress (lead and supporting), as well as best picture and director. In 2011 and 2012, our individual guesses were all the same; in terms of accuracy, we guessed five of six right in ’12, and four of six in ’13.