FISHING -- Sockeye salmon are surging into the Columbia River in record numbers, and that has fisheries biologists scratching their heads. Their forecast for this year is less than a fifth of last year's return.

"Will this year’s actual return beat the preseason forecast?" ponders Joe Hymer, Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife salmon specialist in Vancouver. "Will we set a new record?  Typical peak counts at Bonneville Dam are around July 1."

Through Monday, a total of 33,496 sockeye were counted at Bonneville Dam, the highest count through that date since at least 1938, Hymer said. The previous record was set last year with 24,728 fish by June 13. 

The single-day counts at Bonneville Dam were: 8,764 sockeye on Monday; 6,660 on Sunday; 4,515 on Saturday; 3,411 on Friday; 2,112 on Thursday; and 1,648 on Wednesday.

Last year’s total return  of 512,500 fish was the third largest run since at least 1938. The record is 648,361 fish in 2014. 

The recent 10 year average through June 13 is 10,728 fish.

This year's pre-season forecast of just 101,600 sockeye to return to the mouth of the Columbia is below the recent 10-year average of 290,200 sockeye. That's not sensational, but the early returns are.  So what's the deal?

No one knows for sure.

"Stay tuned," Hymer suggests.

By the way, future sockeye returns to the Columbia are even more questionable.

While last year’s sockeye returned in near-record numbers, about 250,000 perished because of the unusually low flows and warm water temperatures cause by a state-wide drought and extremely hot summer.