The Legislature’s joint Economic Outlook & Revenue Assessment Committee has convened in the Lincoln Auditorium this afternoon to set the state revenue projection; you can watch live here. Derek Santos, Gov. Butch Otter’s chief economist, told the lawmakers, “Instead of having a V-shaped expansion and recovery, it’s been more of a U-shape, a very long U. … We haven’t had this just booming time.”

But overall, he said, “The funds look really good; people are saving money. The balance looks good. They’re working. For the next three years, given what I know now, I don’t see a recession.”

However, December state tax revenues came in below forecast by $12.5 million. Lawmakers asked Santos if that difference was enough for him to change his forecast for the coming year. “I don’t usually get troubled with one month,” he said. “One month doesn’t make a trend. Some of these could be timing issues. I would have to watch a few more months before I would feel like changing my forecast.”

Santos said tax planning affects timing between December and January revenues. “It’s a lot easier to get the year right than to get December and January tax revenues correct,” Santos said. “I guess I stand by my forecast.” That calls for 4.1 percent revenue growth this year, and 4.9 percent next year, in fiscal year 2017; that’s the year for which lawmakers will be setting the state budget during this year’s legislative session.