A Grip on Sports: College basketball is a numbers-driven sport, even when it comes to who plays in the postseason

A GRIP ON SPORTS • Ah, the vagaries of college basketball in late February. A time when wins matter, but not as much, it seems, as how the rest of your schedule is doing. And even then, maybe a win isn’t enough. Yep, we’re into bubble season. Deep into bubble season. And our local teams’ NCAA Tournament chances are on trial.

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• Ladies and gentlemen of the jury, we want to call your attention to today’s NCAA NET rankings. All week we’ve been studying the organization’s analytical system, trying to mine nuggets used by the NCAA Division I basketball tournament selection committee to hand out its gold nuggets, aka, the gilded at-large berths.

Yes, they are precious. There are only 36 of them. And they are worth millions to each conference and program. Oh, and they also serve as bragging rights among the fan set.

This morning, though, we were once again reminded of the system’s quirks. To illustrate, we present Washington State and Gonzaga. Their men’s programs, mainly because both played yesterday. Both won. At home. Handily. Which gives us a chance to compare.

Let’s start with the Cougars, who pulled away in the second half and walloped Stanford 72-59. One win to extend their winning streak to seven games. Against a program that is under .500 on the season, going nowhere again and is dismissed by the NET, as the Cardinal sit at 103 this morning (out of 362 schools).

And yet, the victory bumped Washington State from 36th to 31st in the NET. Not just the win, of course. As we’ve been saying for weeks, the system takes in who you played, where you played and how all those teams are doing. It’s complicated, but the Cougars’ nonconference opponents, ranked in the bottom third of strength of schedule by KenPom (a respected analytic measuring tool), probably had a great day. The Cougars’ 20-6 overall mark, their four top-level wins (called Quad 1 by the NCAA) and only one bad loss, has given them a boost.

If they don’t win the Pac-12 tourney, will they still dance? Today, the answer is a resounding yes, at least to those folks who are paid to predict the NCAA’s decisions.

Now let’s do Gonzaga. Their 102-76 home win over struggling Pacific probably didn’t impress many folks, including Mark Few. OK, that may too harsh, as the Zags were as efficient offensively as they’ve been all season. That’s important. But, still, it wasn’t their best defensive performance and, after it was done, there were some mea culpas handed out.

This morning, the win didn’t seem to have much impact on the Bulldogs’ NET ranking. Well, that and other results around the nation, we’re sure. Gonzaga went from 22nd on Saturday morning to 23rd today. The nonconference foes, who are good enough to give the Zags a 31st rating from KenPom, must have a had a bad day. Well, outside of Kentucky. Remember them? A week ago, the Bulldogs traveled across the country, defeated the Wildcats 89-85 on their floor and jumped them in the NET rankings. It was GU’s first (and still) only Quad 1 win.

The ranking boost lasted seven days. Kentucky’s 70-59 win yesterday at Auburn, ranked sixth in the NET, boosted the Wildcats from 24th to 21st. Yep, ahead of Gonzaga.

To be fair, the residual effects of the Kentucky win are still there. The Zags moved into Joe Lunardi’s mock bracket on ESPN’s site, but only in the bottom spot. And they are still outside-looking-in in others. Their 20-6 record, a strong nonconference slate, none of it is good enough to overcome, well, we’re not sure. Yes, the Bulldogs are 1-5 in Quad 1 games. That’s not good. But they have no bad losses (Quad 3 and Quad 4 defeats are highly frowned upon by the committee), with their worst loss of the Quad 2 variety at Santa Clara.

Dismissive of the Zags’ chances? Just remember this salient fact. If Gonzaga stays close to where it is in the NET, history tells us it will be dancing. The highest NET-ranked team to be left out was North Carolina State, ranked 33rd in 2019. That year, four schools were left out in the top 41. Since then, after tweaks to the formula, only one (Rutgers last season) has.

A better indicator of at-large success is avoiding bad losses. Thus far, both Gonzaga and Washington State have done that. In fact, WSU’s wins this past week were crucial in that regard. As were Gonzaga’s.

It’s a huge part of why we believe, come Selection Sunday, on St. Patrick’s Day, March 17, the Cougars and Zags will be jumping with joy.

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WSU: There was a decent-sized crowd in Pullman yesterday to watch the Cougs’ 72-59 win over the Cardinal. Greg Woods was part of those in attendance and has this game story. … We also pass along Geoff Crimmins’ photo gallery. … Washington State picked up another baseball win yesterday and are 2-1 on the just-beginning season. The Cougars lead off the roundup. … Elsewhere in the Pac-12 and the nation, another close game, another Washington loss. This one was 82-80 on a late 3-pointer by California. … Oregon and Oregon State met in Corvallis. It was tight. So tight it was finally decided on the Ducks’ last-second dunk. Actually, though, an awful 8-minute first-half stretch doomed the Beavers in the 60-58 loss. … USC led by as many as 16 points at home last night. And the Trojans blew it all. They fell 92-89 in double overtime to Colorado, the latest in a bunch of tough losses to the Buffs. … Arizona lost at home last year to Arizona State. It wasn’t happening again Saturday. The Wildcats rolled to a 105-60 victory, the largest margin ever between the teams in Tucson. … Utah and UCLA, which play today, are headed in different directions. … The Oregon women need a win, badly, today. But at ninth-ranked UCLA is not an easy place to get it. … A crucial segment of the season looms for the eighth-ranked Colorado Buffaloes. … In football news, Jon Wilner has a Mercury News mailbag we can pass along. … Colorado will have to rely on veterans to help it reach its goals next season. … There are five crucial tasks for DeShaun Foster if he wants to win at UCLA.

Gonzaga: As we mentioned above, the Zags’ offensive efficiency was exceptional last night. Theo Lawson examines that in this game story. … Jim Meehan focuses on the difference makers as well as a visitor to the game, Andrew Nembhard. … Tyler Tjomsland has the photo gallery. … The folks in the office put together the recap with highlights. … The women clinched the WCC regular season title yesterday following their 91-78 win at Pacific and Portland’s loss to Santa Clara. Greg Lee has all that covered in this story. There are still three weeks to go. And, staying with our Sunday theme, the Zags’ dropped two spots in the NET rankings (from 11 to 13). … Elsewhere in the WCC, San Francisco won for the sixth consecutive time, having no trouble with Loyola Marymount, 82-59. … San Diego was hoping to top Santa Clara again. It didn’t happen as the Broncos won 82-59.

EWU: Despite another game with defensive issues and a 90-84 loss at home to Weber State, the Eagles’ retain a two-game lead in the Big Sky standings. The road ahead is not easy though. All that is covered in Dan Thompson’s game story from Cheney. … Elsewhere in the Big Sky, Montana and Montana State met in Missoula for their Brawl. Turns out, both games went the Griz way. … The Northern Colorado men topped Sacramento State. So did the Bear women.

Idaho: The Vandals had to grind against in-state rival Idaho State. But they ultimately had enough to get past the Bengals 55-53 in Moscow. Peter Harriman has the game story.

Whitworth: After Friday night’s miss, the Pirates had one more chance to clinch the Northwest Conference’s regular season title. They didn’t drop it. However, lots of shots did drop in their 77-53 win at Puget Sound. The four-team tournament, which determines the conference’s automatic NCAA Division III tournament berth, starts Friday at Whitworth.

Preps: It was a big Saturday around these parts. And in Tacoma. We start there, where Mead won another 3A wrestling title with a classification scoring record. Madison McCord has that covered as well as posting a roundup of all the other State wrestling action locally. He also has a bunch of photographs from the tournaments. … It was also a big day for a few boys’ basketball programs that haven’t always experienced success North Central defeated Mt. Spokane 64-59 to win the District 8 3A title. And Rogers topped Pullman 63-53 to win the 2A crown. Dave Nichols has both in this roundup, which also notes Ridgeline is going to the State 3A tourney for the first time. … Dave also has a girls’ roundup which includes Gonzaga Prep earning a State 4A berth with an overtime win over Chiawana and Ridgeline earning its first State berth with a win over University.

Mariners: The M’s face a lot of questions in spring training. Here are four that must be answered.

Seahawks: We have the story on defensive coordinator Aden Durde’s career in the S-R to pass along. … The Times has a story on Jay Harbaugh, the new special teams coordinator and a member of football coaching royalty.

Sounders: Seattle scrimmaged yesterday. Coach Brian Schmetzer was not happy.

Kraken: A six-game homestand is nigh. Seattle has to do well if it wants to make the playoffs.

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• The coating of snow we experienced this morning might seem to signal winter is still in force around these parts. But we prefer to think of it as a last gasp. We’re sure it is only going to get better over the next week or so. And that first crocus of spring can’t be far behind. Fingers crossed. Until later …