Seahawks may not look for QB of future in QB-rich NFL draft. Here’s why

In one of his first moves as the newly named president of football operations for the Seahawks, John Schneider appeared to lay down the gauntlet on himself.

“Fourteen drafts and only drafting two quarterbacks is not something that we’re necessarily proud of,” Schneider said while meeting the media at the NFL scouting combine in Indianapolis in February. “It’s just happened that way. Every year it’s a goal to acquire a quarterback, whether that’s draft, free agency – whatever it looks like.”

At the time, with only Geno Smith on the roster, Schneider’s comment seemed like a clear directive aimed in the mirror that this would be the year the Seahawks would draft a quarterback – especially holding the 16th overall pick and with six QBs generally considered as worth taking in the first round.

But a few weeks later, the Seahawks swung a trade with Washington for two-year veteran Sam Howell, giving them a clear backup to starter Geno Smith.Any idea that the Seahawks were out of the quarterback draft market was quickly quashed by Schneider.

Much as the team likes the potential of Howell, who at 23 is younger than some of the QBs available this year, Schneider said Thursday during his radio show on Seattle Sports 710 that the trade “doesn’t preclude us from what we do in the draft.”

Earlier this spring, he said the trade makes it so that the Seahawks aren’t forced to add a QB.

If the Seahawks don’t feel a need to take a QB now that they have Howell, they could still want to when the draft rolls around April 25-27.

So will they?

Before we get to that, let’s look at the Seahawks’ history of drafting quarterbacks and their present situation before looking at what the future might hold.

The past

That the Seahawks have taken just two quarterbacks in Schneider’s 14 years is in part because they hit so spectacularly on the first – Russell Wilson in the third round in 2012 at 75 overall.

Wilson’s immediate rise to one of the best QBs in the NFL meant the Seahawks never really had a need to take one for the next decade.

Not that it apparently stopped Schneider from looking. They were widely rumored to be interested in drafting Patrick Mahomes in 2017 and Josh Allen in 2018 if either had fallen to where the Seahawks were picking.

With some hoped-for shots in the dark not working out, the only other QB the Seahawks have drafted in the Schneider era is Alex McGough in the seventh round in 2018. They mostly relied on inexpensive veterans to back up Wilson (Tarvaris Jackson, Austin Davis and Geno Smith).

Interestingly, Schneider’s draft history fits the franchise.

The Seahawks have drafted just two quarterbacks in the first round since entering the league in 1976 – Dan McGwire at 16 in 1991 and Rick Mirer second in 1993 – which ties the Rams and Cowboys for the fewest in the NFL in the Super Bowl era.And yes, maybe one could argue that McGwire and Mirer were enough to make a team swear off using high picks on QBs.

The Seahawks have drafted just 17 quarterbacks, which is barely more than the 11 combined number of kickers and punters it has selected (seven kickers, four punters).

That’s in part because they have had some uncommon stability at QB, including four (Wilson, Hasselbeck, Dave Krieg and Jim Zorn) who started 126 or more games with the Seahawks.

By comparison, Tampa Bay, which also entered the NFL in 1976, hasn’t had one QB start more than 79 games (Trent Dilfer).

The Seahawks have taken just five QBs in the first three rounds – Mirer, McGwire, Wilson, Brock Huard (77th, 1999) and David Greene (85th, 2005).

They have taken five centers in the first two rounds.

That illustrates how the draft, despite teams saying they take the best player available, is often based on need.

And the Seahawks simply have rarely had a great need for a QB.

The present

Do the Seahawks have a need for a quarterback now?

That could be a matter of perspective.

They don’t have an immediate need for one with Smith under contract through the 2025 season and guaranteed $22.3 million this year.

Smith has no guaranteed money beyond this season and a trigger date of March 20 when a $10 million roster bonus is due.

That all but assures that Smith’s future with the team will be a hot topic again next offseason.

The reality is that Smith’s age – he turns 34 in October – means his career is year-to-year at this point.

If Smith were to play to an All-Pro level in 2024, the Seahawks would almost certainly need to redo his deal next offseason – but they likely wouldn’t want to make a long investment.

A season similar to his last two might compel the Seahawks to go in a different direction – especially with a new head coach in Mike Macdonald.

Smith seemed to acknowledge the year-to-year status of his career when he talked to reporters, saying, “new coaching staff, old coaching, I’ve got everything to prove. That’s every day. That’s the way I wake up every day.”

The Seahawks have little long-term investment in Howell, who was acquired a swap of mid-round picks. The Seahawks gave Washington a third and a fifth for a fourth and a sixth (moving down from 78 and 152, respectively, to 102 and 179).

Howell is under contract for two more years but at the paltry fifth-round rookie contract salaries of $985,000 and $1.1 million, none of it guaranteed.

That salary is one reason the Seahawks were intrigued by Howell, who started all 17 games for the Commanders last season, especially with last year’s backup, Drew Lock, commanding a one-year deal worth a fully guaranteed $4.95 million from the Giants – a salary Seattle couldn’t match.

Longtime NFL draft expert Rob Rang, who is an NFL draft analyst for FoxSports.com, says he doesn’t think the trade for Howell precludes taking a QB, but does indicate how the Seahawks think QBs may fall in the draft.

“The trade for Sam Howell does not eliminate quarterback from the possibilities for Seattle, but I believe it satisfies the need for a young player to develop as a possible future starter and reflects the strong likelihood that the top QBs will be gone by the time Seattle is on the board at No. 16 overall,’’ Rang said.

The future

So what are the Seahawks’ options for taking a QB in the draft?

The good news is that the top of the draft is QB heavy – if six were taken in the first round, it would tie a record set by the famed 1983 QB draft class (that had Hall of Famers John Elway and Dan Marino among others).

The bad is that there is an increasing belief that all six could be gone by the time the Seahawks pick at 16.

That includes four who most experts think could be gone in the first six picks – USC’s Caleb Williams (generally assumed to be the first pick to the Bears), LSU’s Jayden Daniels, North Carolina’s Drake Maye and Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy (there is increasing speculation he could go sixth to the Giants despite the presence of Daniel Jones and Lock).

That leaves two to whom local fans need no introduction – Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. and Oregon’s Bo Nix.

When the draft process began, each was considered as more likely to be taken on the second day (second and third rounds), if not later. Lindy’s draft annual has Penix pegged as a fifth-rounder.

As tends to happen with a position as important as quarterback, the stock of each has been rising as the draft approaches. With Penix, that apparent rise is said to be because of his medical tests turning out well.

One of the biggest questions about Penix was his history of injuries – two season-ending knee injuries and two season-ending shoulder injuries during his four years at Indiana.

Penix and Nix apparently impressed in interviews at the combine and in individual meetings.

That has led to increasing speculation that teams that pick at 11, 12 and 13 and all have uncertain QB situations – the Vikings, Broncos and Raiders – might have a hard time passing on Penix and/or Nix.

“I would be shocked if he got past Denver,” one NFL scout said recently of Nix.

The Seahawks appear to be ready in case some of those six are available.

The Seahawks obviously know all they need to know about Penix, with his former offensive coordinator at UW Ryan Grubb holding the same title at the VMAC.

Schneider confirmed Thursday that the Seahawks brought Nix to Seattle for a private visit – one of 30 teams are allowed – while McCarthy said he met with the Seahawks at the NFL combine. It was also reported Seattle met with Daniels there.

Some have wondered if the Seahawks could try to make a trade to move up to get a QB.

One issue there is the Seahawks’ lack of early draft collateral. After their pick at 16, they don’t have another until the 81st. They dealt away their second-rounder to the Giants for Leonard Williams in October.

They could try to trade future picks, but that gets more challenging with neither side knowing the value of those selections.

What’s left after the top six?

That’s where it gets challenging as there is perceived to be a significant drop-off in the QBs available.

Generally considered next on the list are South Carolina’s Spencer Rattler and Tulane’s Michael Pratt, in one order or another.

They have shown interest in both. Pratt said he met with the Seahawks at the combine and Schneider confirmed a that they had Rattler in for a private visit.

“Spencer’s a real impressive guy and so is Bo (Nix),” he said Thursday. “Just wanted to spend a little bit more time with these guys.”

Most analysts expect both to be taken no earlier than round two but likely to go before the end of the third round – which means the Seahawks will likely have a shot at either with pick 81.

Both could be gone by their next pick at 102.

After that is a group of QBs who are mostly regarded as players with potential but also significant question marks. That list that includes Notre Dame’s Sam Hartman, Western Kentucky’s Austin Reed, Tennessee’s Joe Milton and Central Florida’s John Rhys Plumlee. The Seahawks reportedly had Plumlee in for a visit.

So could the Seahawks just wait a year to add a QB?

That can sound tempting in theory. Teams never know for sure who will be available in any given year, especially with the increasing influence of NIL money.

The early assessment of the QB group that could be available – the notable names are Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders, Texas’ Quinn Ewers, and Cam Ward, the former Washington State QB who is at Miami – is that it doesn’t compare to this year’s.

“There doesn’t seem to be as much excitement at this point in the process about next year’s guys,” NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah said recently. “I think that could lead to some action, spur some action for these teams to try and either take one where they are and maybe even be aggressive and go up and get one.’’

Will the Seahawks be one of those teams, and in the process allow Schneider to be proud of his quarterback drafting history again? We’ll find out soon.