Fate of Boko Haram leader unclear

JOHANNESBURG – Of all the terrorist leaders sending out suicide bombers in Africa, Boko Haram’s Abubakar Shekau is probably the most globally recognizable: Who could forget that leering laugh as he boasted last year of kidnapping nearly 300 schoolgirls to use as “slaves”?

But where is Shekau now?

The Nigerian terrorist group has released several gory videos depicting killings in recent months – but Shekau hasn’t been seen in one since March.

President Idriss Deby of neighboring Chad on Wednesday voiced what security analysts have suspected for months: Shekau no longer leads Boko Haram.

Is he dead? Sidelined? Severely injured? Deposed? Rumors suggesting all of the above have been swirling for months.

And if he is gone, does that mean Boko Haram – which this year rebranded itself as Islamic State West African Province – is close to defeat?

Shekau has been declared dead many times by Nigerian authorities, only to pop up again. The latest rumor follows the death last September of Ahmed Abdi Godane, the leader of the Somali terrorist group al-Shabab, and confirmation last month that Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar died two years ago.

Both groups have fought on.

While analysts aren’t sure what has happened to Shekau, or whether he has a successor, Boko Haram seems nowhere close to defeat. In recent months, the group has seen a resurgence, lately using teenage girls as suicide bombers.

In a news conference Wednesday, Deby said Boko Haram had been “decapitated” after Shekau was severely injured in March during fighting in the Nigerian town of Dikwa.

“Who told you that Shekau is alive today?” Deby said rhetorically.

Deby didn’t confirm Shekau’s death. But he said a figure named Mahamat Daoud “speaks on behalf of the sect.”

“Certainly the fact that he has not been seen makes it credible or believable that he might have been replaced as leader,” J. Peter Pham, analyst with the Atlantic Council, said of Shekau.

“On the other hand, they’ve had some spectacular failures in their intelligence as well,” Pham said. “There have been at least four or five times when the Nigerians have announced he’d been killed. If he reappeared tomorrow I wouldn’t be surprised.”

Deby said in recent months, Boko Haram appeared to have been getting significant support from Islamic State.

“Even if it turns out that Shekau is either dead or not in a position to lead Boko Haram, you would hardly call it a decapitation, considering the ability of the group to continue its operations, including in the last day a horrific attack on a cattle market,” Pham said, referring to a suicide bombing Tuesday in the Nigerian town of Sabon Gari that killed at least 47 people.

“The group, in the last few months since Shekau’s disappearance, has shown itself to be remarkably resilient with attacks not only in Nigeria but the Chadian capital, Niger and Cameroon.”