Threat grows that a dangerous hurricane could hit Florida’s west coast

A highly unusual and serious situation is evolving with Milton, a storm that strengthened into a hurricane Sunday after earning a name on Saturday. It’s expected to rapidly intensify, probably into a major hurricane, and slam the west coast of Florida as a Category 2 or even 3 hurricane on Wednesday.

Tampa, arguably one of the most hurricane-vulnerable cities in the nation, faces a very significant risk. Milton could, in a worst-case scenario depending on its path and strength, flood parts of the city with a storm surge nearing 10 feet. While that outcome isn’t definite, there exists a very real threat that neighborhoods in the greater Tampa area will be inundated and could become uninhabitable.

“There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday,” the National Hurricane Center warns.

It’s unusual for hurricanes to approach Florida from due west; that, coupled with conflicting details from computer models, makes for a tricky forecast. At this point, even a small shift in track could make a difference.

Across South Florida, something called a predecessor rain event – an influx of tropical moisture that comes ahead of a named storm – is already bringing heavy rains. Flooding is possible from a widespread 6 to 12 inches of rain, leading to a multifaceted flood threat.

An advisory has been issued yet for the United States.

Milton will be arriving less than two weeks after Helene, which ravaged a swath of the South, including southern Georgia, western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee after making landfall as a Category 4 hurricane in the Florida Big Bend.

More than 200 people were killed, mainly by inland flooding. Even far removed from the storm’s center, a 5- to 8-foot surge along the Treasure Coast, the greater Tampa area and southward caused major problems. Some beachside communities are still buried beneath sand.

Milton’s surge could be even more destructive in Tampa.

As of Sunday afternoon, Milton was located 815 miles west-southwest of Tampa. It had winds of 80 mph – making it a Category 1 hurricane – and was moving east at 6 mph, according to the Hurricane Center’s update at 2 p.m. Eastern time.

In the short term, Milton will be a small hurricane. That makes it easier for it to gain strength quickly. But it will be expanding as it approaches the coast, meaning residents from the Florida Keys to Georgia should pay close attention.

Milton is expected to become the fifth hurricane to strike the Gulf Coast this year, following Beryl, Debby, Francine and Helene.

What are forecasters’ concerns?

Milton will take a very unusual track into Florida. In records dating to 1850, there is no precedent for a hurricane entering the greater Tampa area from the west.

Tampa is enormously vulnerable to storm surge. A track similar to what is currently forecast for Milton could have enormous surge impacts and cause billions of dollars in damage.

But a subtle shift of 10 miles north or south could make all the difference.

Where exactly Milton goes will hinge on how quickly it’s tugged along by a trough – or jet stream dip filled with cool air, low pressure and spin – over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

Forecasters also aren’t sure how well Milton will maintain strength between Tuesday and Wednesday.

While it’s very likely to be a Category 3 or 4 on Tuesday afternoon, there are some indications it could weaken upon final approach to Florida.

But will it weaken? And how much? That remains to be seen.

There is also a wild-card scenario that happened with Hurricane Ian and that could allow for some strengthening. Models have a difficult time sniffing it out, but it involves that jet stream dip to the north of Milton. Strong high-altitude winds could tug “exhaust” air away from Milton, making it easier for warm, moist air to flow in the bottom. That could allow Milton to maintain strength longer than models project, keeping it a major hurricane as it hits Florida.

Where will storm make landfall?

Landfall is currently expected sometime Wednesday into Thursday. Timing and strength will depend on one another, complicating the forecast.

A stronger storm would grow taller and “feel” the tugging of the low-pressure system in the Northeast. That would help it come ashore a bit farther north, perhaps near or north of Tampa. A path north of Tampa would mean a disastrous surge in the city, since the onshore winds will be found to the right, or south, of the eye.

A weaker storm would tend to drift closer to due east, perhaps passing south of Tampa. That would induce offshore winds in Tampa Bay, minimizing any surge.

We know that the Gulf of Mexico does favor a stronger storm and still contains near-record oceanic heat content, or hurricane fuel.

If the storm comes ashore as a high-end Category 2 or low-end Category 3 – the most probable scenario – then winds would be gusting at 100 to 110 mph at the coastline, with 75- to 90-mph gusts within a county or two of the shore.

Realistically, though, anything from a Category 1 to a high-end 3 is possible, and the Hurricane Center has noted a wide spread in model simulations. Smaller storms tend to be more fickle and fluctuate in strength more quickly.

What are potential surge scenarios?

The angle of Milton’s approach and magnitude of the storm could maximize surge impacts in Tampa Bay. If the storm passes near or just north of the bay, then a surge of 10 feet, perhaps more, is possible.

Alternatively, a path to the south of Tampa Bay would actually pull water out of the bay, producing something called an “anti-surge.”

That, however, would mean a worse surge in Fort Myers – near where Hurricane Ian made landfall – as well as Naples and Punta Gorda.

What hazards could Milton produce?

Much of central and south Florida could experience tropical-storm-force winds. Hurricane-force winds are likely close to the coast where landfall occurs. Gusts of 70 to 80 mph may make it all the way to the east coast of Florida as Milton re-emerges over the ocean.

In addition, much of the peninsula will see a general 4 to 6 inches of rain, with some areas picking up double that.

A few isolated tornadoes are possible too, beginning Tuesday in the outer rain bands of Milton.

Do other states need to worry?

Although this will probably be mostly a Florida event, if Milton takes a track more to the north over the state, some of its heavy rain and strong winds could spread into southern Georgia and eastern South Carolina.

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Jason Samenow contributed to this report.