Analysis: How do Mariners stack up among World Series contenders in AL West?
SEATTLE – The Houston Astros won the World Series in 2022, and the Texas Rangers won it for the first time in 2023.
Will the American League West produce another World Series champion in 2024?
The division figures to be as tough as any in MLB this season, with the Astros, Rangers and Mariners all carrying realistic postseason expectations. Here’s a primer on what to expect in the AL West this year, listed in order of 2023 finish:
Houston Astros
2023 record: 90-72
Key addition: RP Josh Hader
Biggest question: Do they have enough starting pitching?
Expectations are as high as ever for the Astros, who have played in seven straight AL Championship Series. They have one of the best lineups in the league, and the addition of Hader (five-year, $95 million free-agent contract) gives them the most formidable bullpen in the majors. But injury concerns are mounting in their rotation. Justin Verlander will open the season on the IL, and at 41 it’s only natural to wonder how much he has left. Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier both faded down the stretch in 2023; and with concern about that, the Astros were linked last week to free agent Blake Snell, the Seattle native and reigning NL Cy Young winner, before he signed with San Francisco.
Prediction: Dusty Baker has retired after an illustrious managerial career, but it’s difficult to envision the Astros slowing down under his successor, Joe Espada. They have too much talent and too much experience, and they are still the team to beat in the AL West.
Texas Rangers
2023 record: 90-72
Key additions: OF Wyatt Langford, OF Evan Carter, RP Tyler Mahle, RP David Robertson
Key question: Can they get healthy?
It’s not can they stay healthy, it’s can they get healthy? There’s an important distinction there. The Rangers, still buzzing from their championship, are beat up entering the season. Star shortstop Corey Seager, the World Series MVP, had sports hernia surgery Jan. 30, but he played on opening day. First baseman Nathaniel Lowe and third baseman Josh Jung were limited in spring training, too. Those injuries paled in comparison to the injuries in the Rangers’ rotation, with veterans Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Mahle all recovering from major arm surgeries. The Rangers hope to have all three at some point in the second half of the season.
Prediction: The Rangers, when healthy, had one of the most feared lineups in the league, and they’re expected to add in two touted rookies – Carter and Langford – on a regular basis. Carter was one of the Rangers’ postseason heroes last season, and Langford has generated as much excitement as any big-league player this spring. The Rangers, despite their pitching issues, should again be in the thick of the playoff race.
Seattle Mariners
2023 record: 88-74
Key additions: 2B Jorge Polanco, DH Mitch Garver, RF Mitch Haniger, 3B Luis Urias, RP Ryne Stanek, RP Gregory Santos, OF/1B Luke Raley
Key question: Will the offense be more consistent?
The Mariners are confident in their pitching, and justifiably so. They might just have the best rotation in baseball. If they want to win their first division title since 2001 – and, yes, that should be their goal – they need their overhauled lineup to produce more consistently. There are signs that will happen, with veteran middle-of-the-order bats in Polanco, Haniger and Garver appearing to fit in nicely during spring training. They need to carry that over into the regular season, and the Mariners need to jump out to a better start in April and May to give themselves a chance to hang with the Astros and Rangers deep into the summer.
Prediction: Julio Rodriguez enters September in the thick of the MVP race and the Mariners do indeed win the AL West (yes, really).
Los Angeles Angels
2023 record: 73-89
Key additions: RP Robert Stephenson, OF Aaron Hicks
Key question: Is there life after Shohei Ohtani?
Ohtani has left Orange County to join the Dodgers across town on a record contract. That still leaves the Angels with Mike Trout, who has seven years and about $250 million left on his contract. He told reporters in February that he’s loyal to the Angels and that a trade request would be the “easy way out.” But there does not seem to be an easy path back to relevance for the Angels, who did little in the offseason to replace Ohtani’s production in the lineup.
Prediction: Things get worse – much, much worse – for Trout and the Angels before they start to get better. Oddsmakers have pegged the Angels’ over/under win total at 72.5, and we’re confidently taking the under here.
Oakland A’s
2023 record: 50-112
Key additions: SP Alex Wood, SP Ross Stripling, INF Abraham Toro, RP Trevor Gott
Key question: Um, what’s going on here?
You have to feel for A’s players and fans. They deserve better. The A’s are in limbo as team owner John Fisher tries to sort out the mess that has become the team’s relocation to Las Vegas. In the meantime, manager Mark Kotsay will try to put aside all the distractions and make due with a projected $61 million payroll and young players trying to establish themselves.
Prediction: The A’s had the worst record in the majors last season, and they’ll probably have the worst record again. That appears to be all part of Fisher’s master plan.