What to watch for when Seahawks take on Titans in Week 16, plus prediction

SEATTLE – The Seahawks’ all-time series with the franchise that is the Tennessee Titans – and used to be the Houston Oilers – feels like one of the more nondescript in team history.

Seattle leads it 10-7 and did get a key victory in Nashville, Tennessee, late in the 2005 season to help clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC that year on the way to the Super Bowl.

But that 2005 victory was the first time the Seahawks traveled to Nashville after the Oilers moved there in 1997, and they’ve been there only one time since – a 33-27 loss in 2017.

That was an early-season defeat in the first nonplayoff season for a Russell Wilson-quarterbacked Seattle team.

Seattle’s return comes with equally high stakes – after Monday’s upset victory against the Eagles, the Seahawks are favored to beat the Titans by three points, get to 8-7 and continue to improve their playoff hopes. But a loss dropping them to 7-8 would be as disastrous as a win would be helpful.

Let’s look at some keys to the game.

Key matchup: defense vs. Derrick Henry

Henry, 29, isn’t the same threat he has been throughout his career – his 3.8 yards-per-carry average is by far the lowest of his career and almost a yard off his career average of 4.7. But he’s also still the straw that stirs the drink for Tennessee’s offense, getting at least 10 or more carries in every game.

The Titans are 4-2 when he gains 76 yards or more, 1-7 when he’s held to 75 or fewer. So consider that your magic number for this game. Also a factor – Henry has acknowledged this could be his last season in Tennessee, and this could be one of his final two home games there.

Player to watch: QB Geno Smith

Smith tried to convince coaches he could play Monday before they decided to err on the side of caution, in part hoping not to make his groin injury worse. But he practiced fully this week and slated to again start after two games off. In his absence, Drew Lock pulled off one of the more memorable comeback wins in recent Seahawks history. But that shouldn’t sway anyone into thinking this isn’t still Smith’s team. There could be some rust to shake off (though coach Pete Carroll said Smith had a great practice Friday) and some hesitation early as he tests things out. Smith was coming off maybe his best overall effort of the year, considering the opponent and setting, at Dallas before his injury, and Seattle needs him to return to that level to at least win the two games that appear necessary to reach the playoffs.

Key coaching decision: Secondary rotation

The Seahawks entered the weekend with some secondary questions. Safety Jamal Adams was ruled out Friday due to a sore knee. That would mean another start for Julian Love. But Love did not travel with the team Friday because his wife is expecting a baby, and it was unclear if he would make it by Sunday. Second-year player Coby Bryant would start there if Love can’t go. The Seahawks also switched up things at cornerback against the Eagles with Michael Jackson starting on the right side in place of Riq Woolen. Woolen rotated in some but played only 19 snaps to 50 for Jackson, and that rotation could continue. Seattle also listed rookie Devon Witherspoon as questionable. If he can’t play, that could mean another game as the nickel for veteran Artie Burns. Seattle also could also use three linebackers more and go with Devin Bush alongside Bobby Wagner and Jordyn Brooks to combat Tennessee’s running attack.

The X-factor: the short turnaround

That the Eagles game was flexed to Monday night seemed to add to the luster of Seattle’s win – and the lore it might hold in team history. But now comes the aftereffect of that move – Seattle having to prepare for a relatively long trip on a short week. Carroll noted this week that he did not think the team prepared well for its Thursday game against the 49ers last month – the other “short turnaround” game the Seahawks had this season – and vowed to change some things to prevent a repeat of that effort. Certainly, Seattle must avoid the proverbial hangover of the heady celebration following the Philly win, as well as simply recovering quickly physically. Starting well will be vital.

Who could surprise: Zach Charbonnet

With Kenneth Walker III back to full health, the Seahawks rode him to the win over the Eagles, giving him 19 of the team’s 23 rushes, which he turned into 86 of the 102 rushing yards (both excluding the final play kneel-down that lost 2 yards). That limited Charbonnet to 16 yards on four carries (his fourth-fewest rushing yards of the season) and just 16 yards total from scrimmage (his third fewest). But with the short turnaround and Walker nursing a shoulder injury all week, the Seahawks might divvy up the workload. Whoever gets carries may find the sledding a little tough, though, as the Titans are allowing just 3.7 yards per attempt, seventh fewest in the NFL. But the Seahawks showed against the Eagles what a different an efficient running game can make, and they are expected to try to keep that going.

Key stat: Red-zone scoring percentage

One of the stark statistical differences in this game is red-zone scoring offense and defense – and not to the good for Seattle. Tennessee ranks first in the NFL in preventing teams from scoring touchdowns in the red zone, giving up just 19 touchdowns on 51 chances (37.3%). The Seahawks, meanwhile, are just 26th in scoring touchdowns in the red zone, 21 of 44 (47.7%). A stronger running attack would help Seattle to even that out. Smith said this week that converting red-zone chances will be an obvious key. “They’re stout,” Smith said. “They usually hold guys to field goals, not many touchdowns given up. They’re great in the run game, they stop the run first, and then they kind of put an umbrella on the defense where you can’t really get behind them. You kind of have to dink and dunk and throw in front of them, and then they rally and tackle. For us it’s going to be finding the one-on-one (matchups), finding the open guy, got to run the ball down there, and then being efficient and scoring touchdowns and not field goals.”

Prediction: Seahawks 21, Titans 16

This has the feel of being an unevenly played game – ugly, if you prefer – with Seattle likely showing some jet lag and the effects of a short week and long trip. But the Seahawks also have some momentum and belief after the stirring win over the Eagles, and that should carry them here.