Democrats see edge in tax poll

BOISE – Idaho Democrats have conducted a statewide poll that shows 60.5 percent of Idahoans prefer their property tax relief plan, and only 10.5 percent like Gov. Jim Risch’s proposal better, with 17 percent undecided and 12 percent refusing to say.

But Risch said the poll mischaracterized both plans and that the Democratic plan wouldn’t provide permanent tax relief and may be unconstitutional – assertions the Democrats disputed.

The poll comes just a week before the Legislature will gather in a rare, one-day special session with just one bill on the agenda: Risch’s tax reform bill. It would eliminate a major school property tax levy to cut property taxes for all taxpayers by $260 million; raise the sales tax a penny to 6 percent to make up $210 million of the lost school funding; and take $50 million from the state’s $203 million budget surplus to make up the last bit. The Risch plan also would put $100 million from the surplus into a savings account for schools to hedge against future revenue shortfalls.

The Democrats are pushing an alternative plan, to eliminate the school levy only for homeowners, and take $104 million from the surplus to replace the lost school funding. That plan wouldn’t increase the sales tax but assumes the $104 million in surplus money still would be available in future years to continue funding schools. If not, it could force a future tax increase.

The Risch plan assumes that $50 million of the surplus would be available in future years for school funding.

Here’s how the poll, conducted by GSI Research of San Francisco on Monday, characterized the two plans:

“Next week, the Legislature will convene for one day to talk about property tax relief. There are two plans currently being discussed:

“The first plan would use the surplus and raise the sales tax to 6 percent. Forty percent of the property tax relief would go to Idaho homeowners, the other 60 percent would go to big businesses and out-of-state property owners.

“The second plan would use the surplus to target 100 percent of the relief to Idaho homeowners without raising the sales tax. Big businesses and out-of-state property owners would receive no benefit. If you were asked to vote, which plan would you support?”

Brad Hoaglun, communications director for Risch, said, “If that were presented to me, why would I want to pay sales tax? ‘Yeah, let’s tax those out-of-staters, I don’t want to be taxed.’ That’s too easy, and it’s a mischaracterization of both plans.”

Chuck Oxley, spokesman for the Idaho Democratic Party, disagreed. “It’s clear their plan sends 60 percent of this to businesses and to others other than homeowners,” he said.

According to state Tax Commission figures, of the $260 million in property tax reductions under the Risch plan, $105 million would go to homeowners, $62 million to owners of other residential property, and $93 million to owners of business property including industry, commercial operations, farms, utilities and more.

That means homeowners get 40 percent of the benefit, other residential property owners get 24 percent, and businesses get 36 percent.

Both sides shift those numbers around to support their arguments. Risch says owners of residential property get 64 percent of the benefit under his plan, but he counts non-homeowner residential property in that total. The Democrats lump that group in with businesses to get to 60 percent.

Risch questioned that. “It isn’t just out-of-state people. What about people that are in-state but own two residences?” he asked. That category includes all non-homeowner residential property owners, whether they live in state or out of state.

Boise State University political science professor emeritus Jim Weatherby said the use of the terms “big business” and “out of state” in the poll question are “hot-button items that would give a negative connotation to the Risch plan.”

“They are beneficiaries,” Weatherby said. “I think the problem is trying to explain in two lines a piece of complex tax legislation.”

However, he said, “If these results are anywhere near correct, it does show that Gov. Risch and the Republicans have a real selling job to do among the electorate.”