Are Colts the best passing team ever?
The cover boy for the 2004 fantasy season is Peyton Manning. Are the Colts really on pace to be the greatest passing team ever? Or is this simply the year of the QB?
The Colts currently are at an even 9.0 in yards per passing attempt (YPA), followed by the Vikings (8.4) and Eagles (8.2). In the other key passing stat, points per passing attempt (PPA), the Colts register an unbelievable .81, almost lapping the Vikings (.51) and Eagles (.46).
In 1999, Kurt Warner’s Rams (42 TD passes) had 8.6 YPA, followed by the Vikings (8.2) and three other teams at 7.7. Their .55 PPA was league-best, followed by the Panthers (.44) and Vikings (.42). Relative to their respective leagues, the Colts win this hypothetical battle by a knockout.
The ‘86 Dolphins (46 TDs) are the one weird team in that they finished just fourth in YPA. Their league-leading PPA was .50, followed by the Vikings at .42 and Seahawks at .37. Decision: KO, Colts.
The ‘84 Dolphins (49 TDs) were, of course, first in YPA at 9.0 followed by the Niners (8.2) and (the then) St. Louis Cardinals (8.2). The Dolphins’ PPA clocked in at .60, followed by the Niners (.45) and Seahawks (.45). Decision: TKO, Colts.
To date, the 2004 Colts are unquestionably the greatest passing offense relative to their era and Manning deserves to be the No. 1 pick in every fantasy draft next year.
To see how all teams rank in net YPA and net PPA, click on the Stat Power Index at my website, www.rotoaction.com.
Buy
Onterrio Smith (RB, Vikings): Mike Tice has committed to Smith, reducing Michael Bennett’s role to practically nothing. Smith is unlikely to regain his early season form until Randy Moss (see below) recovers and keeps opposing safeties far from scrimmage. Smith is averaging over 6 yards on his 112 touches this year and even got a goal-line carry Sunday.
Ronald Curry (WR, Raiders): Everyone wants Jerry Porter after the three TDs, but Curry has been the Raiders’ most productive receiver. Curry dropped a sure 60-yard TD two Sundays ago, but made up for it with a circus catch against Denver. Two matchups against the Chiefs await, including one Week 16 (the typical fantasy championship week).
Larry Johnson (RB, Chiefs): Priest Holmes is out again and what’s the point of him coming back at all with KC 3-8? And what’s the point of playing soon-to-be-unrestricted-free-agent Derrick Blaylock at the expense of Johnson, a former first rounder who’s never been given a chance? Those are a lot of ifs, but the upside could be huge relative to present cost.
Sell
Randy Moss (WR, Vikings): No. 84 looked gimpy on Sunday. He could recover fully and become the NFL’s ultimate WR weapon again, but the clock is running out on 2004. Trumpet his TD catch and find the owner in your league desperate for upside and well practiced in wishful thinking.
Rudi Johnson (RB, Bengals): Last year’s heartwarming surprise had been this year’s flop, failing to average 4.0 yards per carry in 7 of his 11 games including four in a row before Sunday’s 200-yard outburst. Look at his next three games: Ravens, Patriots, Bills. Check, please. Remember, Rudi is a zero as a receiver, too (just 33 receiving yards in ‘04).
Hold
Brian Griese (QB, Bucs): Griese is working on four straight two-TD games and threw for 347 yards against the tough Panthers (just five TD passes allowed before facing Griese). His YPA is a sparkling 8.27 and he’s completing 70 percent of his passes. The upcoming schedule is tough, but he gets the (s)Aints during fantasy playoffs (Week 15).