The five best bets to win this year’s PGA Championship

Predicting the PGA Championship winner is a much different beast than doing so for the Masters, considering that Augusta National hosts that tournament every year and thus has some extremely sticky course history (i.e., certain types of golfers seem to play well there every year). Because the PGA Championship is played on a different track each year, course history is generally thrown out the window, though this year’s host, Valhalla in Louisville, has hosted the tournament three times, most recently in 2014, and a number of golfers in this year’s field were among the participants 10 years ago.

So we’re left to rely a whole lot on current form, which has proven to be a good predictor for PGA Championship success. We’ll combine that with what we know about the course to try to identify a winner.

Here are a few aspects I’m considering:

• The PGA Championship is the only major championship that does not extend invitations to amateur players, though 20 spots are set aside for PGA club professionals. Therefore, the tournament annually garners the highest strength-of-field rating as compiled by the Official World Golf Ranking. Though the PGA has produced some surprise winners this century - Jimmy Walker, Jason Dufner and Y.E. Yang say hello - it’s become increasingly unlikely that an unheralded player is going to topple the world’s greats.

• As with all majors, the PGA Championship winner almost always enters in great form: 17 of the past 18 champions made the cut in their previous tournament, and the one exception - Brooks Koepka last year - plays on a LIV Golf circuit that does not have cut lines. Three of those 18 champions were coming off a win, nine finished in the top five in their previous outing (including Koepka last year) and all but two finished in the top 20 in their most recent event.

• Of the past 20 PGA Championship winners, 15 had won a tournament in the same calendar year. Nineteen had at least three top-10 finishes and all 20 had at least one top-20 finish in the same calendar year (although the PGA Championship used to fall later in the year, allowing for more time to accomplish such feats.)

• Five of the past six PGA Championship winners already had a major win on their résumés. The one who didn’t - Collin Morikawa in 2020 - has since won another major (the 2021 British Open).

• This is another small sample size, but in the four PGA Championships played in May since 2019, three of the winners also finished in the top 10 in that year’s Masters (Phil Mickelson, the outlier in 2021, finished tied for 21st at Augusta that year). This year’s Masters top 10: Scottie Scheffler, Ludvig Aberg, Max Homa, Collin Morikawa, Bryson DeChambeau, Cameron Smith, Xander Schauffele, Tyrrell Hatton, Cameron Young and Will Zalatoris.

After some tinkering with the course, Valhalla will play long (151 yards longer than the last PGA Championship there, in 2014, and the third-longest course among PGA Tour venues this year). It should also be firm and fast, unless it rains a whole lot to take the starch out of the greens, as happened 10 years ago. The rough will be up, too. However, low scores have been predominant the last two times Valhalla has hosted the PGA Championship: In 2014, when Rory McIlroy won the tournament at 16 under par, there were 179 rounds below par, fourth-most in tournament history, and 58 players finished under par, with 14 of them at least 10 under. In 2000 at Valhalla, Tiger Woods and Bob May both set what was then the PGA Championship stroke-play record at 18 under par before Woods won in a playoff.

Valhalla, which was designed by Jack Nicklaus, also has a number of quirks (some would say to its detriment). The par-5 seventh hole features a split fairway, which allegedly rewards drives that choose the riskier left path. There’s also an elevated island green at the par-4 13th (island greens on par 4s are relatively rare) and a horseshoe-shaped green at the finishing hole.

In general, we’re looking for big hitters (McIlroy ranked second in driving distance when he won at Valhalla in 2014) and – considering the course’s length – players who are accurate with long irons on their second shots.

Here are a few bets worth considering at this year’s PGA Championship. All odds taken Monday from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Scottie Scheffler (+400)

We were on the world No. 1 to win the Masters, which he did, for a second time. Picking Scheffler to win a golf tournament kind of feels like cheating at this point - he followed up his win in Augusta with another one the next weekend and has won four of his last five starts, with the one miss a tie for second - but until someone takes him down, he needs your consideration, even at semi-ridiculous odds. The one caveat this week is that Scheffler’s wife reportedly has just given birth to their first child, and who knows where his mind is. Still, Scheffler doesn’t seem to get fazed by much.

Rory McIlroy (+700)

While Scheffler was on baby watch, McIlroy has filled the void with two wins in three weeks, one in a team event with Shane Lowry and another when he shredded Quail Hollow’s back nine to race past Xander Schauffele on Sunday at the Wells Fargo. And now you’re telling me he gets to play an arguably easier course, and one at which he already has won? If Scheffler is the world’s best golfer at the moment, McIlroy is the one with the most momentum, and he has to be a consideration at Valhalla.

Brooks Koepka (+1400)

The defending tournament champion enters in fine form, having won the most recent LIV Golf event in Singapore earlier this month and tied for ninth in the tournament that preceded it. Koepka’s grand-slam record is simply absurd: In 39 major championship appearances, he has five wins (three at the PGA), four second-place finishes and nine other top 10s. Koepka hits the ball a mile, and it’s hard not to like his chances this week.

Bryson DeChambeau (+2200)

DeChambeau no longer is cartoonishly muscle-bound, but he still has plenty of power off the tee - he leads LIV in driving distance - which should serve him well here. DeChambeau has finished in the top 8 in three of the last six majors, including at this year’s Masters (at a course where he previously never had played well), and he has four top 10s on the LIV circuit this season. Plus, his 2020 U.S. Open win was at Winged Foot, which might prove to be a favorable comp to Valhalla.

Max Homa (+2800)

Three of Homa’s six career PGA Tour wins have come on long, upper-echelon courses (Quail Hollow, Riviera and Torrey Pines). And, thanks to a tie for 10th at last year’s British Open and a tie for third at this year’s Masters, he’s also finally shaken his reputation as a guy who never shows up at major championships. Homa trailed only two players in strokes gained: approach on his way to a tie for eighth last weekend at the Wells Fargo, one of three top-eight performances over his last six tournaments.

Sepp Straka (+9000)

Straka isn’t the longest off the tee but he’s one of the most accurate, which should serve him well if the rough is an issue at Valhalla. The Austrian with the Southern accent (he moved to Georgia at the age of 14) has quietly been putting together a solid season, with top-16 finishes in five of his last six tournaments, and he’s becoming quite the big-game hunter in grand slams: He tied for seventh at last year’s PGA, tied for second at last year’s British Open and tied for 16th at this year’s Masters.

Taylor Pendrith (+15000)

Pendrith, who ranks ninth on the PGA Tour in driving distance, has had a weird year. He scored his first PGA Tour win at the Byron Nelson a few weeks ago - on a TPC Craig Ranch course that matches Valhalla in length - and has four other top-11 finishes, two of them at elite-field events (the Farmers Insurance Open in January and the Wells Fargo). But he also missed five out of six cuts over one stretch, his hopes doomed by inaccuracy off the tee and grim approach play. If the Canadian can continue to show consistency, he could be worth a look down the odds board, or as a top-10 or top-20 play. Pendrith was never really in contention at the Wells Fargo - it was a two-man race between McIlroy and Xander Schauffele - but he finished a respectable 10th, and there’s no reason for his odds this week to be the same neighborhood as Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson, who likely have no shot.

As of Monday afternoon, here were the odds to win the PGA Championship of the leading contenders, according to DraftKings Sportsbook:

• Scottie Scheffler: +400
• Rory McIlroy: +700
• Xander Schauffele: +1400
• Brooks Koepka: +1400
• Jon Rahm: +1600
• Ludvig Aberg: +1600
• Bryson DeChambeau: +2200
• Collin Morikawa: +2500
• Max Homa: +2800
• Joaquín Niemann: +3000
• Wyndham Clark: +3500
• Viktor Hovland: +3500
• Tommy Fleetwood: +3500
• Cameron Smith: +3500